reLAKSation 456
The new consumer: According to the Scottish Salmon Producers Organisation, over 1.1 million new people have eaten fresh salmon over the last two years. This is the equivalent to the population of Birmingham or nearly as many people that live in Oslo. New figures from Kontar Worldpanel (formally TNS) indicate that the number of people who have eaten fresh salmon has increased from 5 million in February 2008 to 6.1 million in February 2010, an increase of 22%. This is an impressive increase and one which Kontar Worldpanel says is due to an increasing demand for health enhancing food.
We, at Callander McDowell, do not know how Kontar Worldpanel arrives at their figures but we find it rather surprising that there are so many new consumers. Just a year ago, and halfway through this time period, Scottish Fisheries Secretary Richard Lochhead said that he was pushing a promotion of fish because there had been a dip in fish consumption. A survey published in January by Brahm Insight for SeaFish found that average consumption remained well below the recommended two portions a week at just 1.6 portions.
SeaFish also issue regular reports of fish sales from Nielsen and although we have not the data from 2008 to hand, sales of fresh salmon over the last year in the UK appear to have remained relatively static. This is in keeping with salmon production which, the SSPO says, has also remained static since 2003. Scottish salmon production in 2008 was 128 thousand tonnes and was forecasted to increase to 133 thousand tonnes in 2009. This was supplemented by a further 42,000 tonnes from Norway in 2008 and 46,000 tonnes the following year. Chilean salmon was also available in the UK before supplies dried up which also contributed to overall consumption. The combination of imports and home production would suggest that the supply has remained relatively static too so it is unclear what salmon these new consumers have actually eaten.
This consumption data covers a period of two years. We are willing to bet that most of this growth occurred in the first year between February 2008-2009 rather than the following year. This is because rising prices over the past year must have suppressed demand, not expanded it. This is confirmed by news from the Norwegian Seafood Export Council, and reported by Kyst.no, that UK imports of Norwegian salmon have fallen by 18% during the first part of 2010. Certainly, this fall is not because of the increased availability of home produced salmon since more Scottish salmon than ever has been sent abroad, In 2009 Scottish salmon exports grew by 24% to 65,000 tonnes with 24,000 tonnes going just to the USA.
Whilst lower imports do not necessarily indicate a fall in consumption, data from Nielsen suggests retail sales of salmon have fallen by about 4-5% over the last twelve weeks. Retail salmon prices have increased over this period but not that much. The main change in prices has only just occurred with the mainstream supermarkets now forcing through some eye-watering increases. Salmon is no longer the cheap, affordable meal choice that it once was. It has become very expensive due to increases of up to 40%. Some retailers have even increased prices one week and then again the following week. It does seem that they now intend to make these increases stick but whether they can, will ultimately depend on what happens to demand. Consumers, deterred by the higher prices, will forgo salmon and this will eventually impact on prices.
Scott Landsburgh, Chief Executive of the SSPO has welcomed the leap in popularity in salmon, although this popularity may well already be on the wane. He suggests that current demand for salmon is such that the Scottish industry could supply twice as much as is now produced. That is undoubtedly true, but at current price levels, it is questionable whether there will be the demand. The dilemma now facing the Scottish industry is one that they have faced since 1989. Do they want to produce fewer salmon and keep prices high or expand production and suffer lower prices?
The SSPO say that ‘experts’ from the Federation of European Aquaculture Producers have forecast an undersupply of 190,000 tonnes in 2010 but it is unclear whether this undersupply is linked to higher or lower price levels. The undersupply results from the problems in Chile but this will diminish as Chilean salmon production comes back on stream. The market will be then very different and current high prices will be just a distant memory.
More relevant to the Scottish industry is that fact that the UK, as a salmon producing nation, imports 47,000 tonnes of salmon from Norway. These are fish that can be produced in Scotland. The SSPO says that the industry has a desire for sensible and sustainable growth of between 3-5% over the next five years. Five per cent growth will only just cover the current shortfall meaning that the UK must remain dependent on imports for years to come (as long as prices do not remain at current levels). This rate of expansion means that all the additional new consumers that the SSPO hopes to attract will be unable to buy locally produced salmon. If 1.1 million new consumers have arrived to salmon in just two years, how many more can be expected over the next five?
F**k off: Twenty percent of the delegates at the recent Aquavision conference agreed that the best way to improve the aquaculture industry is to engage more with the NGO’s etc. This would seem to make a lot of sense. However, much of the environmental lobby is so entrenched in their views that they are unwilling to even listen to the other side.
We are indebted to Marine Harvest Canada for drawing attention through Twitter to an encounter between salmon farm campaigner Vivian Krause and David Suzuki, head of the David Suzuki Foundation which has been reported on the Canadian blog ‘CityCaucus.com’.
For a number of years, Vivian has been writing to David Suzuki to ask about funding and other matters relating to the Foundation’s stance against aquaculture. To date, she has failed to elicit a reply. It was therefore with some surprise that whilst attending her daughter’s graduation ceremony she bumped into the man himself. She describes what happened as follows:
As we walked in to Cafe Crepe, I happened to notice Dr. David Suzuki sitting alone, having a bite to eat. For three years, I have been writing letters (see below) and trying unsuccessfully to communicate with Dr. Suzuki so I thought that perhaps I could just briefly introduce myself and give him a friendly handshake to go along with my name. As politely and as respectfully as I know how, I approached Dr. Suzuki to take the liberty of introducing myself.
"Dr. Suzuki, I wonder if I might introduce myself," I said, or something like that. "I'm Vivian, Vivian Krause," I said. He kindly stood up to shake my hand, I believe, but my name didn't seem to ring a bell so I added, "I've been trying to write you letters." Still, he didn't seem to place my name so I added, "I have a web-site, 'Fair Questions,' " I mentioned, adding that I would really appreciate it if I could speak with him or meet with him.
Then, he placed me, or so it seemed. "You're the fish farmer," he said. I had barely begun to explain that yes, I used to work in fish farming - seven years ago - but before I could say much Dr. Suzuki looked me straight in the eye and started telling me to f**k off. Not just once. Then, suddenly, he seemed to catch himself, and quickly sat down.
I was so stunned, I was speechless (which doesn't happen very often).
Vivian did manage to later ask if she could call him at his office or if he would call her. The reply was no.
The aquaculture industry has yet to really learn that the industry detractors are always happy to engage with them as long as it is on their terms. The likelihood of open and constructive debate appears more of a hope than a reality. Perhaps this is why only twenty percent of delegates voted for this approach to improving the industry’s image.
Salmon loins: IntraFish report that the Norwegian newspaper VG has criticised Salmon Brands and Leroy Seafoods for describing their salmon product as a loin. They interviewed Magne Paulsen of the Fiskehallen in Oslo who said that call it what you want but it is just a salmon fillet.
We, at Callander McDowell, can’t say whether the product that the newspaper looked at was a loin or a fillet but the implication is that they are the same. This is not the case. The loin is an accepted cut of some large fish not just salmon, which is widely available in UK retail stores.
Marks & Spencer, for example, sell both cod fillet and cod loin. They helpfully include a picture on their packaging showing exactly where the loin is located. Effectively, it is a fillet with the belly flap removed. Salmon loins, the most expensive cut of salmon available in the UK, are just the same.
One retailer is currently selling salmon fillet at £13.80/kg and the loin for £18.50/kg. Consumers pay the extra for the part of the salmon with least waste. The loin is just pure salmon flesh.
Perhaps VG has confused this cut of flesh with another meaning of the word ‘loin’. Perhaps this is why this story is a load of b…….