reLAKSation 446
Professor Franck Asche of the University of Stavanger warns against high salmon prices suggesting that consumers may turn to other more affordable species if salmon becomes too expensive. Salmon prices are currently at their highest level for this time of year. Some commentators are now predicting that the price may even reach NOK 50/kg (£5.50/€6.23/$8.41) later this year.
Yet salmon consumption appears to be still growing. The latest export figures from Norway indicate that whilst the price of salmon has increased by NOK 3/kg (£0.33/€ 0.37/$0.50), salmon exports to the end of February were up by 19% to 112,000 tonnes. The largest market is France with growth of 7% by value and the fastest growing is the US, which is up by 253%. Despite Professor Asche’s warning, consumers are showing no signs of deserting salmon in favour of cheaper species.
It is not of any surprise that salmon prices have gone up so much. It has been well-documented that ISA has devastated production in Chile, significantly reducing the volumes of salmon that the Chilean industry could export. This has created a shortage in supply that has forced up prices on the international markets.
Experience would suggest that increased prices should stifle demand as consumers find salmon to be too expensive for everyday consumption, but the export figures seem to imply that demand is actually continuing to grow. This is because the spot market is not really a true indication of what is happening to the salmon market.
Salmon prices may have increased because of a shortage of fish from Chile but this is not the whole story. Significant volumes of fish are now committed to supply contract agreements, meaning that less fish are available to the open market and thus prices have risen accordingly.
In some markets, most salmon is now sold through the major retailers. These stores do not buy salmon on the spot market but rather favour contracts that allow them to plan the way their fish is supplied and the price paid. What this means is that whilst spot prices are high, the salmon available in many retailers remains competitively priced and is therefore still very attractive to consumers. In addition, the popularity of salmon is being preserved by active promotion by the retail stores.
There have been plenty of attractively priced salmon available this Easter. In the UK, whole salmon was priced at £3.49/kg (NOK 31.62/€3.94/$5.33) which is well below the spot price of around £4.00/kg (NOK 36.22/€4.52/$6.11). Salmon fillet was on offer at £6.40/kg (NOK 58.15/€7.25/$9.78). In France, the best priced whole salmon was just €4.99/kg (NOK 39.97/£4.41/$6.74),whilst fillet could be bought for €8.95/kg (NOK 71.70/£7.91/$12.10).
In the US, whole salmon was available at $3.99/lb and fillet at $5.99/lb. This equates to NOK 51.92/£5.72/€6.49 per kilo and NOK 78.05/£8.62/€9.72 per kilo. A complete list of US promotional offers for this Easter can be found below.
What the retailers now recognise is that salmon is only popular because it is reasonably priced. There is a limit to the price that most consumers are prepared to pay for their salmon. If prices reach this level, demand will fall dramatically, followed quickly by a fall in price.
The main problem faced by the salmon market will come when contracts are due to be renewed. If the salmon industry starts to believe that it can sell all the salmon it produces at the higher spot market prices, then it will soon find that the current growing demand will simply disappear, as Professor Asche suggests, with consumers turning away from salmon to seek more affordable choices. Even the most loyal consumers are likely to cut back on the frequency with which they eat salmon, even if they don’t stop eating salmon completely.
Easter offers in the US
Acme Fresh Markets - Fresh salmon fillet $6.99/lb
Acme Markets – Fresh salmon fillet $9.99/lb
Albertsons – Fresh Atlantic salmon fillet $7.99/lb
Biggs – Fresh Atlantic salmon fillet $7.99/lb
Big Y – Fresh Atlantic salmon fillet $6.96/lb
Brookshire’s – Atlantic salmon fillet $5.99/lb
Buehler’s – Fresh Atlantic salmon fillet $9.99/lb
Busch’s – Jail Island Canadian Salmon fillet $6.99/lb
Butera Market – Norwegian salmon fillet $6.99/lb
City Markets – Atlantic salmon fillet $5.99/lb
Coborn Delivers - Norwegian salmon fillet $8.99/lb
Copps – Fresh Atlantic salmon fillet $6.99/lb
Cub Foods – Atlantic salmon fillet $8.49/lb
D&W Fresh Market – Black Pearl salmon fillet $8.99/lb
Dierberg’s – Fresh Norwegian salmon fillet $9.99/lb
Farm Fresh – Fresh Atlantic salmon fillet $7.99/lb
Food4Less – Fresh Atlantic salmon fillet $6.98/lb
Food City – Chilean or Norwegian salmon fillet $6.99/lb
Foodland – Atlantic salmon fillet $8.99/lb
Foods Co - Fresh Atlantic salmon fillet $6.98/lb
Fresh & Easy – Skin on Atlantic salmon fillet $6.99/lb
Giant – Fresh salmon fillet $7.99/lb
Giant Food – Fresh Atlantic salmon fillet $7.99/lb
Giant Eagle – Fresh Canadian Atlantic salmon $7.99/lb
Grand Market – Norwegian salmon fillet $8.69/lb
Heinen’s – Fresh Norwegian salmon fillet $9.99/lb
Homeland _ Fresh Norwegian salmon fillet $8.99/lb
Hornbacher’s - Fresh Atlantic salmon fillet $7.98/lb
Hugo’s – Fresh Canadian salmon fillet $7.98/lb
Jewel Osco – Fresh salmon fillet $6.99/lb
Kings – Fresh salmon portions $12.77/lb
King Soopers – Fresh Atlantic salmon fillet $5.99/lb
Kuhn’s _ Fresh Atlantic salmon fillet $7.99/lb
Landis – Jail Island Salmon fillet $5.99/lb
Lucky Supermarkets – Fresh Atlantic salmon fillet $6.99/lb
Magruders – Fresh salmon fillet $6.99/lb
Mars – Salmon fillet $5.99/lb
Pavillions – Fresh Atlantic salmon $ 7.99/lb
Pick ‘n Save – Fresh Atlantic salmon fillet $6.99/lb
Price Chopper – Salmon portion $5.99/lb
Publix – Fresh salmon fillets $7.99/lb
Rainbow Foods – Fresh Atlantic salmon fillet $6.99/lb
Raley’s – Fresh Atlantic salmon fillet $7.99/lb
Ralphs – Fresh Atlantic salmon portion $10.63/lb
Randalls – Fresh Norwegian salmon fillet $7.99/lb
Reasor’s – Norwegian salmon fillets $8.98/lb
Redner’s- Fresh salmon steak $7.98/lb
Remke Markets – Norwegian salmon fillet $6.99/lb
Robert Fresh Markets – Norwegian salmon fillet $7.99/lb
Roche Bros – Salmon portion $11.99/lb
Save Mart Supermarkets – Fresh Atlantic salmon fillet $5.99/lb
Sentry – Fresh salmon fillet $6.99/lb
Schnucks – Fresh Norwegian salmon fillet $8.99/lb
ShopRite- Fresh Atlantic salmon fillet $7.99/lb
Stater Bros – Whole Atlantic salmon $3.99/lb
Stew Leonard’s – Naked salmon fillet $7.99/lb
Stop & Shop – Fresh Atlantic salmon steak $6.99/lb
Super Fresh Food – Fresh Atlantic salmon steak $6.99/lb
Superior Grocers – Whole Atlantic salmon $4.49/lb
Super One Foods – Salmon fillet $6.99/lb
Sweetbay Supermarket – Fresh Atlantic salmon fillet $6.99/lb
Times – Fresh Atlantic salmon fillet $7.99/lb
Turcos- Salmon fillet $7.99/lb Steaks $5.99/lb
Tom Thumb – Fresh Norwegian salmon fillet $7.99/lb
Ukrops – Fresh salmon side $7.78/lb
United- Fresh Atlantic salmon fillet $6.99/lb
Vons – Fresh Atlantic salmon fillet $7.99/lb
Waldbaums – Fresh salmon steak $6.99/lb
Weis Markets – Norwegian salmon portions $11.97/lb
Western Beef – Salmon fillet $7.99/lb
Wiseway – Fresh Atlantic salmon fillet $6.99/lb