reLAKSation 439
NOK 50: Jason Paine of Multiexport Foods in Miami has warned that there won’t be enough salmon to supply the US markets this year. However, we at Callander McDowell disagree. There will be plenty of salmon in the US market, but NOT at a price that consumers will be willing to pay.
Reports from Chile suggest that 2010 will see the lowest point in Chilean supply before production starts to edge up again as the salmon industry in Chile shows the first signs of recovery. Mr Paine agrees that prices will go up and as a result he told IntraFish that consumers will start to consider whether they really want to buy salmon as it becomes more expensive.
The supply situation may be exacerbated by the worsening exchange rates which will make Norwegian salmon even more expensive. Mr Paine says that the dollar is now worth 1 NOK less than it was last year. This is before salmon prices start to rise. Most analysts now predict that salmon will become more expensive (although rising prices are not exactly difficult to predict). Both Aslak Berge of First Securities and Klaus Hatlebrekke of DnB Nor have suggested to IntraFish that the price of salmon may peak at NOK 50/kg later in the year and at current exchange rates, this equates to £5.33/kg ($8.33/kg -$3.87/lb). This is very expensive given that consumers can now buy whole salmon in the UK for just £5.79/kg, a difference of just 46p/kg. A couple of months ago, the price was only £5.29/kg but has recently gone up. How many more increases will consumers be prepared to withstand is unclear but the experience of past price rises suggest that consumers will simply look for something cheaper if salmon becomes too expensive.
Jason Paine suggests that consumers may not desert salmon but eat it less frequently. He believes that once supplies increase and the price falls again, then consumers will return and the market will recover. However, prices may have to fall significantly to persuade consumers to buy salmon again.
Cod has always been deemed to be one of the most popular fish species amongst British consumers. However consumption of cod fell after the public had been warned that cod stocks were in imminent danger of collapse. Yet, although stocks have now been shown to be in good health and supplies are plentiful, consumption has not recovered. According to the Scotsman newspaper, cod consumption has fallen by 17% over the last year (and salmon by 4%) sales of pangasius have risen by 60%. Consumers have tried the cheaper option and found it to be acceptable and so have continued to buy regardless that cod is now available on the fish counter. Mr Paine suggests that US consumers will turn to tilapia if salmon becomes too expensive but will return to salmon when it is more affordable. Affordable may not be enough as it might have to become really cheap to tempt consumers back.
In the UK, consumers didn’t turn to pangasius overnight. They had to be wooed with repeated promotions such as those offering the fish at half price or on BOGOF. The longer salmon remains at a high price, the more likely it will be that consumers will need to be persuaded back.
We, at Callander McDowell, have previously suggested that there could well be a joker in the pack and that is wild salmon. Wild Alaskan salmon is processed for many different markets some of which are not the most lucrative. It will not be difficult for salmon destined for elsewhere to be diverted into the home market filling the gap left by farmed salmon. Prices of previously frozen wild salmon have not been too different to that of some farmed salmon. Consumers could be more tempted by a change to wild salmon than to chicken or tilapia as Mr Paine suggests.
It may be harder to persuade consumers to change back from wild salmon to farmed than it would be to change back from tilapia. If more US supermarkets follow Target’s example of selling only wild salmon, then consumers may no longer have the choice. Salmon farmers may relish the idea that prices will reach NOK 50 but any short-term benefits may result in long-term damage
(Oh) Dear Daniel: Charles Clover, author of ‘The End of the Line’ headlined his latest entry on the Fish2Fork website with ‘Fish Farming will not feed the world says top expert’. Whilst Charles Clover perceives Dr Daniel Pauly to be a top expert, there appears to be many who attended the recent Seafood Summit in Paris that would question whether Dr Pauly could be classed as an expert at all.
John Sackton, writing in Seafood.com, suggested that Dr Pauly could only arrive at his overall conclusions by sprinkling his presentation with many inaccuracies and misstated facts. Dr Pauly used his keynote speech to offer his opinion on a variety of issues ranging from the MSC to global warming.
His diatribe included an unexpected view on salmon farming. According to IntraFish, Dr Pauly appears to suggest that it is acceptable to farm salmon if it is considered a luxury product. However, he warned not to make salmon into a commodity item as this externalises wages and working conditions. Dr Pauly’s concern for workers is commendable but he has always argued against farming on the basis that forage fish are harvested from the sea to make fishmeal which is then fed to the salmon. This happens irrespective of whether the fish are intended for a luxury or a commodity market. It is not clear why Dr Pauly thinks that it is acceptable for one market but not the other.
Of course, such double standards are the norm when it comes to questions about the salmon farming industry. Dr Pauly told IntraFish that dialogue with the salmon industry is like talking to the tobacco industry. He says that they always say that this is not proven. However, it may not be the case that the answers to his questions are not proven but rather that he would rather not hear them if they don’t fit in with his views on salmon farming. For example Seafood Source reported from the showing of the Pure Salmon Campaign’s film ‘Farmed Salmon Exposed – the global reach of the Norwegian salmon farming industry’. We will save discussion of this film to a later issue of reLAKSation preferring instead to focus on the subsequent discussions.
Petter Arneson from Marine Harvest was present at the showing and told the audience that the film had nothing to do with the new Marine Harvest adding that the company is involved in the Salmon Dialogues with the WWF and is working to reduce its dependence on fishmeal. Dr Pauly who was also present then asked the audience whether anyone believe what Mr Arneson was saying. Seafood Source didn’t report whether Dr Pauly received an answer but clearly Dr Pauly isn’t willing to listen to anyone who undermines his blinkered vision of fisheries supply. But then this is not uncommon in a world where money decides on what is and what is not sustainable.
Dr Pauly is best associated with the ‘Sea Around Us Project’ funded through the Pew Charitable Trust. Pew and the two other main funding charities – the David & Lucille Packard Foundation and the David Suzuki Foundation fund many of the anti-salmon farming organisations and whilst like Dr Pauly, they are quick to demand answers, they are less reluctant to answer questions directed at them.
FishfarmingXpert reports that Vivian Krause, who we have mentioned in previous issues of reLAKSation, has been trying to speak to either David Suzuki or his spokesman Mr Robinson. Ms Krause was told that Mr Robinson was not available to speak to her – ever. She accuses the David Suzuki Foundation of hypocrisy because whilst they expect the salmon industry to answer their questions, they refuse to respond to any question.
FishfarmingXpert says that this is a lesson in arrogance and incompetence. These organisations hold a strong grip on politicians and authorities, and have a great influence on policies relating to aquaculture. Yet, we have not yet seen a shred of truth in the opinion they express. They try from every angle: Farmed salmon harm the human health! Farmed salmon harm nature! Farmed salmon harm wild salmon! And so on.
The problem for the salmon industry is that it makes no difference what they do, it will never be enough. The flow of money from these charitable trusts will ensure that opposition will always remain.
Healthy Options: Atlantic Fast Food, a fish and chip shop located just outside Glasgow has won the annual Fish and Chip Shop of the Year competition. According to Fishnewseu.com, the owners, as first time entrants, were surprised to win the competition. So were we at Callander McDowell.
SeaFish, organisers of the competition, say that fish and chip shops have changed dramatically over the 22 years that the competition has been running. Fish and chip shops are no longer just judged on the quality of their food but in lots of other areas as well, such as customer service, food hygiene, staff training and responsible sourcing. Many fish and chip shops now offer different varieties of fish such as sustainable pollack, coley and hake. Unfortunately, Atlantic Fast Food, despite being Fish & Chip Shop of the year doesn’t seem to be one of them. Unlike many fish and chip shops their menu is extremely restrictive when it comes to fish. Their customers appear to have only one choice to make when buying their fish and chips and that is whether they want their haddock to be big or small.
Yet, speaking to Scottish Television, Atlantic Fast Food’s Giovanni Fionda said that they were working hard to bring the industry forward by offering more healthy baked fish alongside the usual fried offering. He also said that they were also offering a ‘fish of the day’ which changes daily so customers get to know that there are other fish besides haddock and cod. He mentioned hake and sea bass. Their fresh fish is sourced every single day – including many varieties not usually found in the local chippy. However, none of these appear on their menu. Perhaps the launch of these new offerings coincided with the submission of their competition application. Its difficult to know who or what to believe.
For example, SeaFish have issued two different press releases relating to Atlantic Fast Food’s success in the Fish and Chip Shop of the Year competition. In both press releases, (http://www.seafish.org/plate/fishandchips.asp?p=gf561 ) SeaFish state that ‘This is the first year Atlantic Fast Food has entered the competition’. Giovanni Fionda says “To win this competition as a first time entrant is a dream come true’. Yet, the Atlantic Fast Food website (http://www.atlanticfastfood.co.uk/ ) states on their home page: ‘Atlantic Fast Food is pleased to be finalists in the Fish & Chip Shop of the Year Award 2006, 2007, 2009.’ They do say ‘Award’ rather than Competition as it is more widely known but it seems that other organisations use the two different descriptions for the same competition.
Returning to the subject of their menu, customers do have another option when it comes to seafood, and that’s scampi, but that’s where the fish and seafood choice ends. Yet despite the limited range of fish and seafood, Atlantic Fast Food offers an extensive menu. They may not have different varieties of fish but they have every conceivable variety of fast food. These include haggis, hamburger, chicken, pies, sausage, black pudding, ribs, fritters and pakoras. However a couple of other items on the menu are considered Scottish specialities, fried pizza crunch and deep fried Mars Bar.
SeaFish state that fish and chips is one of the healthiest takeaways containing less salt, a third less calories and over 40 percent fat than other takeaways. This may be true for those fish and chip shops offering just fish and chips but with fried pizza crunch and Mars Bars on the menu any semblance of the fish and chip shop as the healthy option is well and truly lost
For the uninitiated, fried pizza crunch is a cheap pizza, usually bought from the cash and carry wholesaler, and typically just cheese and tomato but sometimes with added toppings such as mushroom or onion. The pizza is dipped in batter and deep fried either whole or in portions. It is sold on its own or with chips as a pizza supper. The pizza can also be fried without batter and then it is described as deep fried pizza. Photos of examples of this delicacy are shown below, although these were not bought from Atlantic Fast Food. Needless to say both deep fried pizza and fried pizza crunch can be found on the menu at award winning Atlantic Fast Food. The Fried pizza crunch costs £4.60 or £6.10 with chips. (Haddock and chips are £5.80).
Blog23x.net
Atlantic Fast Food also offer the other Scottish delicacy deep fried Mars bar for £1.10. According to the National Geographic Magazine, Drs David Morrison and Mark Petticrew, both based in Glasgow, surveyed around 300 Scottish fast food restaurants that sell fish and chips. They found 22 percent of these chip shops also served deep-fried Mars bars, each containing more than 420 calories. Some shops sell more than 200 each week with three quarters of customers being children. We can only wonder whether the judges of the fish & chip shop competition were aware that Atlantic Fast Food are promoting such healthy options.
I like, Seriouseats, Wiki
News of their success in the competition has spread throughout Scotland and the rest of the UK. Mr Fionda told Fishupdate.com that they have had visitors from as far afield as Aberdeen in the north and York in the south and even some Australians. He added that he has had to install a second fryer since demand has increased so much. He said that last Friday, the shop served 1.75 tonnes of potatoes, more than double their usual sales. However, whilst sales of chips doubled, Mr Fionda made no mention as to whether fish sales increased or whether customers preferred to avail themselves of the healthy option - pizza crunch special!