reLAKSation 352. Callander McDowell
A fish too many?: The UK’s Daily Express reported on the battle between conservationists and the fishing industry over the future of Britain’s fish and chip suppers. This follows recommendations from the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) that the European Union should ban fishing for cod in various waters around the UK and Denmark. Yet, whilst ICES argue that cod stocks are threatened, the Hull-based trawler owners group, FASFA, say that expert advice shows that there is enough cod and haddock in the North Atlantic for a billion fish and chip meals next year. They say that the public can enjoy their favourite meal without feeling guilty about destroying the fish stocks.
This ‘battle’ raises a couple of fundamental questions which merit discussion. The first is how do we know whether we are eating a fish species to extinction? Whilst the second question relates to how this uncertainty about the state of cod stocks impact on the fledgling cod farming industry?
ICES is an internationally recognised organisation that coordinates and promotes marine research in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas. Although they have a staff of less than fifty, they are a meeting point for a community of more than 1600 scientists from twenty different member countries. These scientists gather information about the marine ecosystems which besides filling in gaps in the existing knowledge is developed into unbiased non-political advice, which is then used by the member countries to help develop their own marine policies. An example of this advice is that fishing for cod should be curtailed in some parts of the North Sea.
It is difficult to ignore such impartial expertise yet the European Commission often does so. This is because they must balance the need to protect fish stocks against the need to help maintain the viability of traditional fishing communities, especially those in areas where there is little opportunity for alternative employment. The decision to set quotas is therefore something of a compromise.
Yet, in the case of cod, the fishing industry believes that the advice from ICES and other conservation organisations is misguided and that there are still plenty of fish out at sea. Bertie Armstrong of the Scottish Fishermen’s Federation told fishupdate.com that he was not surprised by the standard annual response about the state of fish stocks. He said that news about cod stocks is always turned into an ‘annual hysteria’ with predictions of hell and damnation which misleads the public and masks the truth about the proactive and responsible approach taken by the Scottish fishing industry. He acknowledges that there is cause for concern but argues that this is why 65% of the fishing fleet has been decommissioned. He added that he never hears mention about stocks that are being harvested sustainably such as haddock and saithe.
The problem is how does anyone know whether these fish are being harvested sustainably or whether cod stocks are truly threatened? The answer is that we don’t. No-one has any idea as to the true state of any fish stocks. It is only when fish catches go into decline that we know anything is wrong.
It could be argued that the only way to be sure that the stocks from which the fish we eat are sustainable is if they are certified sustainable by the Marine Stewardship Council. Yet, as the experience of the certified Alaskan Pollock and Pacific salmon fisheries has shown, we can’t ever be certain but then this should not really be of any surprise. If the advice of a huge organisation, with over a hundred years of experience, is still being questioned as to the accuracy of their advice, how can we even begin to trust the assurances of commercially motivated certifying companies that the stocks they have certified are truly sustainable?
Perhaps, we should get the MSC to initiate the certification process for cod and then we can see whether or not they reject the fishery as unsustainable or they find that stocks are being harvested in a sustainable manner and that there is, as the trawlermen say, billions of fish suppers out at sea just waiting for a willing British public.
An article in the Guardian newspaper suggests that actually the British consumer is deserting cod for other species such as pollock. They say that cod consumption has fallen by 10% whilst that for Alaskan pollock has increased by about 160%. However much of this is because cod has been taken out of many frozen coated products and been replaced with pollock instead by the main frozen fish companies as they try to demonstrate their eco-credentials. It is inevitable that, aided by price incentives, cod consumption has fallen whilst pollock has increased. By comparison, fresh fish counters still appear to have plentiful supplies of cod and the price is still relatively low whilst species that are promoted as being ready alternatives are priced much higher. This is hardly conducive to encourage consumers to try something different, especially now with a credit crunch to consider. Meanwhile, the Icelandic Government has decided to keep their fishing quota for cod at 130,000 tonnes; the same as for last year, which means supplies will continue to flow. Much of this fish is destined for the UK market rather than elsewhere in Europe. A recent visit to France highlighted that much of the cod sold there appears to originate from Baltic stocks.
Whilst the supermarket shelves and fish counters continue to be supplied with cod, it will be extremely difficult to persuade consumers to eat something else even if the conservation lobby argue that there is a risk of decimating stocks for ever. Of course, there is no need for stocks to be risked in this way. This is because there is an alternative source of cod available. That is farmed cod.
We, at Callander McDowell, have always argued that the only way to safeguard fish stocks is to encourage consumers to eat more farmed fish. This will reduce the fishing pressure on wild stocks and allow them breathing space to recover. There is such a wide variety of farmed species available that consumers should be able to find something to their liking. Although fish farming has been practised for thousands of years, it is only since the mid 1960’s that modern aquaculture really took off with salmon farming.
Salmon were selected as a prime candidate species for farming because they had a relatively high market value and there was only a limited availability of wild fish. In addition, the large egg size meant that when the fry hatched and had absorbed their egg yolk, they could be fed an artificial diet. Salmon also had a perceived market image that would attract consumers. As a result, salmon farming has proved extremely successful, especially as lower prices have created a whole new consumer demand for value for money fish.
It would have been thought that the success of salmon farming should have prompted a more rapid move into marine fish farming, especially of popular species such as cod. However, there has always been one major obstacle to the development of cod farming and that has been the plentiful supplies of wild caught fish at relatively low prices. This has always made cod farming a non-starter. Not only would farmers have to compete against these wild caught supplies in the market but they would be hampered by having to bear a high cost of production, inflated by the need for complex and expensive hatcheries necessary to provide live food to newly hatched cod fry that are too small to feed on artificial diets.
This all changed with the new eco-consciousness that has pervaded the fish industry in recent years, enhanced by near hysteria from the media who warned that the end of fish and chips was in sight. Predictions that local cod stocks would follow the fate of the Grand Banks fishery were rife. It seemed that the end of wild caught cod was near and thus the time was right to invest in cod farming. With little or no competition from wild caught fish, it wouldn’t really matter if farmed cod would be more expensive than the prices that consumers had previously paid for wild caught fish because the choice would be farmed cod or none.
However, the predictions of doom and gloom such as that following from 1995 in which a leading fishery scientist forecast that cod would run would by the end of the decade. Thirteen years on, it seems that cod is still piled high on supermarket fish counters and still at relatively low prices.
If, as the Scottish trawlermen predict, there is over a billion cod suppers to be harvested from around British waters, then the future for cod farming may be in doubt. On the other hand, if ICES’s advice is correct and fishing for these billion fish suppers is allowed to continue, leading to the demise of cod stocks, then cod farming would be the winner.
The problem for the fledgling cod farming industry is if the status quo remains and plentiful supplies of wild caught cod continue to be sent to market. So far the evidence shows that farmed cod is struggling to find its own place in the market since consumers are reluctant to pay the higher price necessary to cover the higher production costs, at least whilst there is a cheaper wild option on the slab. Most of the stores that have tried to sell farmed cod have for the time being at least seemingly given up resorting to selling wild caught fish only. We were in France a couple of weeks ago and found one example of farmed cod in one supermarket chain. The farmed cod was sold in prepacks whilst wild caught fish were being offered on the fresh fish counter. Both were priced the same so there was no incentive to buy either. If anything, we found the prepacks rather uninspiring and wondered whether they attracted much consumer attention. Cod farming companies certainly face a real challenge to persuade consumers to choose their fish.
It just happens that as we mention the challenges ahead, Nofima, the Norwegian industry-oriented aquaculture and fisheries R&D group have just published a summary of their findings of a project to assess the European market demand for cod farming to succeed. According to seafoodintelligence.com, Nofima say that cod farming is in demand like never before with production growing and good prices but they ask whether this is enough for cod farming to succeed.
Prices may be good but this is because the volumes sold are tiny. However, even variation in harvest volumes clearly shows that increased volume will undermine such good prices. IntraFish report that in week 2, 48 tonnes was sold at NOK36.15/kg whereas in week 25 the volume had increased to 72 tonnes but the price had slipped to NOK35.20/kg. What will happen if volumes start to follow the past growth of the salmon industry?
Nofima report that most farmed cod is sold in autumn when supplies of wild caught fish are down and prices tend to be higher. This is because few cod farming companies have enough cod to keep supermarkets supplied on a year round basis. Nofima also says it is ‘silly’ not to take advantage of higher prices to help service their finances whilst continuing to develop their businesses. However, Geir Sogn-Grunnvåg from Nofima says that this does not mean that these companies do not want to establish long-term contracts with the supermarkets, it is just that they have not attained the volumes necessary to service such contracts.
Yet, we wonder whether cod farming companies can afford to engage in such contracts if they have to compete against low cost wild caught fish. It may be that cod farming companies need to develop alternative strategies to those utilised by salmon farming companies. Salmon farmers have been able to reduce their production cost in line with falling prices. Cod farming companies have yet to prove that this is possible and so compete directly with the wild catch.
Maybe the cod farming companies hope that they can establish a higher grade of cod which will generate a premium price but we doubt that this strategy will be successful Salmon farmers have tried for many years to achieve a similar strategy and have failed. The problem is that consumers just see a lump of fish flesh and are unable to differentiate between what is considered to be a piece of premium flesh and what is considered to be the standard version.
Nofima also interviewed the management of eight cod farming companies and found that they prioritised different competitive advantages to succeed in cod farming. These included a favourable location for cod farming, competent staff, good relationships with other companies and high product quality.
We can’t speak for other consumers but we doubt that many look at a piece of farmed cod and think ‘did competent staff produce this fish’. Instead, consumers think does that piece of cod look good and is it affordable?
This means that cod farming companies should be thinking ‘Are consumers willing to buy our cod?’ ‘What price will they be prepared to pay?’ and most importantly ‘Can we make a profit?’
The salmon industry has been slow to move from production-led strategies to those which are more market –led. Perhaps the competitive presence of wild caught fish in the marketplace may help cod farming companies to recognise the need for a more market-led approach much sooner.
Of course, if the promise of a billion cod suppers is not fulfilled, then it will be a totally different story.