reLAKSation 345.                                                           Callander McDowell 

Knowledge is king: IntraFish recently reported that Tove Sleipnes, the Marketing Manager for white fish at the Norwegian Seafood Export Council, has been taking the pulse of the market from their UK office near Piccadilly Circus in central London. This is of interest to her because Norway, together with Iceland, supplies fresh cod to the British market. During her investigation of the retail market, Ms Sleipnes found prices to be stable but at a high level with cod selling at between NOK 150-200/kg (£15-£20/kg).

We, at Callander McDowell, are not sure which stores Ms Sleipnes visited to conduct her investigation but we do know that prices in Central London prices do not necessarily reflect the prices elsewhere in the country. Those stores located in inner London tend to be those which cater to the top end of the market and thus are more likely to be Marks & Spencer or Waitrose, than Asda or the Coop. We do know that Ms Sleipnes probably visited the fish counter franchise in Selfridges because they recently promoted Norwegian fish, as previously highlighted in our comment on Skrei cod. In fact the photo that Fiskaren used to illustrate this story in the original article was taken in Selfridges during the week long promotion.

We have some difficulty with Ms Sleipnes’s findings as they don’t really coincide with our own observations of the market place. The problem is that the market is not so simple that there is just one product called cod. Instead, there are two distinct presentations available both from fish counters and in chilled prepacked form. A lot of fish is sold away from the fish counter so this sector cannot be ignored. However, Ms Sleipnes refers to the diversity of fish that are available from British fish counters that we must assume that she only looked at this outlet.

In the UK, cod is sold as either fillet or loin. The loin is more expensive that the fillet because it tends to be a thick, more meaty cut. Prices for cod loin have been far from stable as over the last few months we have noticed a significant price rise. This is typically about 25% although the increase has been much less in those stores serving the top end of the market and much more at the value end. In this sector, the price has been reversed, no doubt because the loins became just too expensive for the value consumer. Currently, loins selling from the fish counter range from £14.50 to £17.50/kg (NOK 145-175/kg).

Courtesy of Marks & Spencer

All retail fish counters also sell cod fillet. Prices for fillet are much cheaper than for loin and have, as Ms Sleipnes has observed, remained relatively stable. Currently, prices for cod fillet range from around £8.98/kg (although one store is now running a promotion on cod fillet at £8.71/kg) to £12.99/kg (NOK 90-130/kg).

Prices for chilled prepacked cod tend to be a little higher and there are examples of fillets and loins ranging from £8.98/kg to £24.99/kg (NOK 90- 250/kg) which certainly covers the observations made by Ms Sleipnes.

Market knowledge is both essential and absolute but at the same time, inaccurate knowledge can be extremely damaging. Ms Sleipnes has only painted part of the picture of cod sales in the UK and as a result the Norwegian industry may be misinformed of what is happening in one of their key markets.

We have always believed that accurate and detailed market information is necessary even to primary producers who have no direct involvement in the retail sector. This is because they need to know and understand what is happening to their produce once it leaves their control.

It is only necessary to look at the Scottish salmon industry to see how damaging misinformation can be. The Scots have always argued that consumers are willing to pay a premium price for their salmon. Back in 1994, they even took an advert out in the Grocer magazine stating that over 70% of consumers are willing to pay a premium price to buy Scottish salmon.

This perception of consumer preference was restated by Ernst and Young in their 2005 review of the salmon farming industry. Their report stated that “UK consumers are favourably disposed towards salmon sourced from Scotland and in most cases are prepared to pay a premium for a Scottish product.” However, our regular observations of the retail sector have been unable to identify even one single example of where consumers actually pay a premium for Scottish salmon. By comparison, we can cite many examples of where Scottish and imported salmon are sold together on the same shelf at exactly the same price.

We are also reminded of another example which highlights a significant deficiency in market knowledge. A number of years ago, a leading industry figure speaking at one of the fish farming exhibition in Glasgow, said that whilst it was likely that there would be some imports of salmon from Chile in the European market, he was certain all would be used in processing and that none would be sold in the retail sector. Yet at the same time as he was speaking, customers of one supermarket situated only a couple of miles from the exhibition centre, were readily buying packs of salmon that were clearly labelled as having been farmed in Chile.

Whilst these examples are of industry interest, market information is even more relevant to individual farming businesses and therefore we hope that you will forgive us for using this issue of reLAKSation to promote our own business.

Callander McDowell produce market surveys of the retail sector in both the UK and France, two of the key European markets for salmon. However, we also monitor other species too including cod and exotics. In fact we can produce market surveys for any species that our customers require. Below is a sample page from one of our surveys.

It is colour coded identifying new products, price changes and whether the product is no longer available. The survey lists the pack weight, price, price per kilo and the manufacturer as well as any supplementary information. The salmon survey covers every salmon product sold in the main supermarkets included chilled, fresh and frozen and products from raw salmon and smoked salmon to complex recipe dishes. It can be varied to meet the specific requirements of each individual business.

Whilst at the start of this sales pitch, we focused on the price of raw cod however the retail sector can offer a whole range of surprising products such as that pictured here:

If this view of the marketplace has stimulated your interest in any of our retails surveys, please e-mail office@callandermcdowell.co.uk for further details.

Frozen out: Continuing on a similar theme, the April issue of Fishfarming Xpert magazine includes an update of what is happening in the UK retail market for salmon. Research from AC Nielsen commissioned by Seafish and published in their 2007 salmon report shows that sales of fresh salmon remained relatively stable at nearly 26,000 tonnes with only 0.8% growth on the previous year. However, whilst volumes remained stable, the value of the sales rose, no doubt boosted by uncertainty in the marketplace. The average price per kilo rose by 4.4% to £13.34/kg. It must be assumed that this price relates mostly to salmon fillets as these now dominate the retail market.

By comparison, the frozen sector grew by 3% to nearly 4,000 tonnes although sales fell by 25% over the last quarter of the year. The value of frozen salmon also rose but not by as much as fresh to an average of £7.55/kg.

Seafish believe that frozen salmon lost about 10% of the market share throughout the year. In common with fresh salmon, this is attributed to higher salmon prices which have deterred some consumers. Overall, the decline in market share is considered to be relative small.

Commenting on the trands, Lorna Jack of Seafish says that whilst fresh salmon has performed the best during 2007, the frozen sector has the potential to grow during 2008. This view is based on the fact that food prices are forecast to continue rising, which in turn will make consumers more price sensitive and should be expected to encourage them towards the frozen aisle. We at Callander McDowell are not so sure.

Firstly, we believe that the results of this survey are misleading. Frozen salmon is not as cheap as the data would have us believe. The average price of frozen salmon is put at £7.55/kg however our own survey shows that even the cheapest farmed Atlantic salmon fillet, sold by one of the discount chains, is priced higher than the average figure at £8.76/kg. Prices then range upwards to £15.13/kg with an average approximated to be about £11.00/kg. These prices are actually more expensive than those for fresh. Currently, fresh salmon fillet can be bought for less than £8.00/kg and it is possible that it may become even cheaper. The Seafish survey noted that average salmon prices fell in the first weeks of the year and we have seen some prices fall by even more.

So how has the Seafish survey arrived at such a low figure for frozen salmon? The answer is probably the presence of cheap Pacific Pink salmon fillets in the freezer cabinet. We can find examples of Pink salmon fillets as low as £5.98/kg, which would certainly affect the average price. Pink salmon may be called salmon but tastes completely different from farmed Atlantic salmon and this is reflected in the price. When farmed salmon prices rose, there was an increased substitution of farmed salmon by Pink salmon and the even cheaper Chum salmon. Examples can still be found in the freezer section and these undoubtedly have affected the average price of frozen salmon.

We are also doubtful that consumers will switch to frozen salmon for the simple reason that they will have a hard job finding frozen salmon to buy. Whilst the fresh and chilled fish sections are dominated by the pink colour of salmon, the frozen section is typically white. Cod, haddock and now pollock are all strongly represented in the freezer section with many different offerings. By comparison, salmon products are generally hard to find with a choice of only one or two examples per store.

We have monitored the frozen section as part of our regular surveys for a number of years. We cannot see any significant resurgence of interest in frozen fish, except for those products which are already popular and dominate the freezer cabinet, unless prices fall well below that of fresh and chilled fish.

It does seem that salmon prices are now beginning to fall and hopefully, this will not only stimulate demand but also widen the market as processing Atlantic salmon once again becomes a more economic proposition.

Off the menu: According to the ‘Globe and Mail’ that in the same way that fall means rain, summer in Vancouver means Sockeye salmon. These fish are not just a menu option but part of the British Columbian identity. Therefore any suggestion to remove wild salmon from restaurant menus is not just a radical idea; it’s a challenge to a deeply held social and political belief. Yet, Robert Clark, Executive Chef of the ‘C’ Restaurant is considering exactly this. He and the restaurant’s owner, Harry Kambolis say that the restaurant may never sell another piece of wild Pacific salmon again.

Robert Clark is considered to be Vancouver’s sustainable seafood guru and the Globe and Mail say that when Mr Clark speaks, other restauranteurs listen. Mr Clark was instrumental in founding and spreading the word about Vancouver Aquarium’s Ocean Wise Programme, which was set up to encourage restaurants to make sustainable seafood choices. The National Post recently reported that Mr Clark had been made ‘Newsmaker of the Year’ by the Canadian Association of Foodservice Professionals. This is the first time that an individual, rather than an organisation has won this award.

Mr Clark became known through his campaign against ocean farming Atlantic salmon at a time when every other restaurant had it on the menu. He was also instrumental in raising awareness about the wider crisis facing fish. He became concerned about the precarious state of wild sockeye stocks and removed it from C’s menu opting to serve pink and chum salmon instead. Now Mr Clark says that he and Mr Kambolis can see a point when it will be necessary to remove all wild salmon from the menu and he is considering putting farmed salmon on the menu instead.

Many stocks of Pacific salmon ranging from BC to Washington, Oregon and California are under threat. In British Columbia, 34 of 89 stocks assessed by the Department of Fisheries are considered to be under threat whilst there are widespread closures in all three US States. Yet, whilst the picture for these fisheries is not good, Pacific salmon is not only available, it is certified as sustainable by the Marine Stewardship Council. We are puzzled why Mr Clark would not consider using these fish on his menu. After all, the other high profile chef advocating using only sustainable fish, Tom Aitkens, is happy to use MSC certified fish in his restaurant.

Whilst, the Ocean Wise Programme provides a guide to which restaurants serve sustainable fish, they don’t actually highlight which fish are considered sustainable and which are not. Instead, they provide a link to lists of fish to avoid such as that produced by the Monterey Bay Aquarium. Interestingly, they recommend Alaskan salmon with a second choice of salmon from Washington, Oregon and California, the very fisheries that are now threatened. Monterey Bay Aquarium also says that all farmed salmon should be avoided as there is no way to tell if the salmon is sourced from more sustainable and responsible producers. The same must also apply to wild caught salmon since there is no way to tell which fishery the fish comes from. Mr Clark may therefore be making the right decision? The problem for those still preferring to eat wild caught Pacific salmon is that it does seem that the Alaskan ranching programme to boost supplies of Alaskan salmon is having a detrimental effect on other stocks of Pacific salmon since they appear to be overwhelming the feeding grounds. We have discussed this issue in a previous reLAKSation, questioning whether MSC certified Alaskan salmon is truly sustainable or not? The problem is that it is extremely difficult for consumers to make an informed choice. Mr Clark is taking the ‘high road’ and taking the decision out of their hands.

Unfortunately, Mr Clark’s customers at C restaurant as well as at sister restaurants ‘Nu’ and ‘Raincity Grill’ are not being provided with the information to support Mr Clark’s choices. Currently, the menus at all three restaurants include salmon but whilst there are five different species of Pacific salmon, Mr Clark doesn’t appear to identify which he uses or even if the fish is wild caught or farmed. At C only one dish names the species used (Crispy skin Coho salmon, fondant Yukon gold potato, organic carrots and spinach, saffron consommé), although another names the fish as ‘Spring’ salmon (Spring salmon, pan braised, sunchokes & carrots, cucumber, basil vinaigrette) which is sometimes used to identify pink or chum salmon. We will return to the Coho salmon later.

At Nu, one dish is made from Viking Princess salmon??? (Wild ‘Viking Princess’ salmon cakes watercress and radish salad, saffron crème fraiche). A second dish is made from smoked sockeye (Smoked Sockeye salmon salad mixed lettuce, crispy winter vegetables, mustard chive crème fraiche), even though Mr Clark removed sockeye from his C restaurant two years ago, due to its precarious state.

At Raincity Grill, the main dish is made from Wild Pacific salmon?? (Wild Pacific salmon BC spot prawn and pancetta colcannon, creamed leeks re wine jus), whilst the salmon in a smoked salmon dish remains unidentified (Smoked salmon on brioche, poached eggs, hollandaise sauce, capers, watercress salad, chive crème fraiche).

Surely, without proper identification, it is impossible for any consumer to make a reasoned choice as to which fish they should chose to eat. The first job of anyone advocating sustainable choices should make sure that all the fish served are properly identified. Mr Clark clearly fails on this point and therefore there is no way of knowing whether he is a true advocate of sustainable seafood or whether he is just jumping on the bandwagon for publicity’s sake.

Having said that he only uses pink and chum salmon, the appearance of Coho salmon on his menu appears to undermine his claims of sustainable sourcing. When interviewed by the Globe and Mail, Mr Clark said that any decision to change to farmed would be influenced by the availability of fish from closed containment systems rather than ocean based pens. The paper highlights that one restaurant, Bishops, already sources Coho salmon from Swift Aquaculture, a land based farm in Agassiz. Mr Clark says that he is exploring similar options however, he doesn’t say that he is already buying such land based farmed fish. Could it be that he Coho’s on his menu come from this farm. If they do, then Mr Clark is already misleading his customers by no identifying them as such, not because such fish should be labelled as farmed but because Mr Clark has adopted such a moral high ground that he should stick to his principles.      

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