reLAKSation 227.                                                   Callander McDowell 

Challenge: This week, the European Commission finally implemented a permanent minimum import price on the import of Norwegian salmon. Various news reports suggest that Norway is now contemplating legal action through both the World Trade Organisation and through the European Courts.

Yet another unnamed spokesman for the EUSPG told IntraFish that any challenge to the legislation was a matter for the Norwegians. He said that the vast majority of the member states have considered the Commission's proposals and found them to be well founded. This may be very well true but there is also the possibility that the member states have based their decision on flawed information. It is entirely possible that even the Commission have been totally misled as to the true facts of the case. IntraFish report that the continuing saga of salmon dumping rose again in August 2004 when the European Commission accepted an EUSPG complaint that a flood of cheap Norwegian salmon was driving their members out of business. Yet, clearly many of the EUSPG members, far from going out of business, seem to be doing extremely well. Loch Duart Salmon has just featured in a major food magazine and Angus Macmillan's farm appeared on fish chef's Rick Steins TV programme. Some farms did go bust, all based in Shetland and whilst one or two of these may have been genuine bankruptcies, others have allegedly been accused of implication in some financial irregularities associated with grants and loans whilst their owners continue to farm under different company names.

It would seem that none of the dire forecasts that were issued by the EUSPG along with the complaint have failed to materialise. Independent Scottish farms have not gone bust and Scottish production has not collapsed as the Scottish Executive surveys have shown. Even after the Commission had decided in their favour, the EUSPG continued to warn of imminent disaster. An unnamed spokesman told the Glasgow Herald that unless the Government issued immediate help the whole independent industry would disappear within two months. That was back in August and yet the EUSPG members are still actively farming.

The Norwegian industry may yet decide to challenge the European Commission as to the validity of their decision but the real challenge should be issued to the EUSPG to explain why all their dire warnings appear to be nothing more than just hot air.

Losing out: According to IntraFish, Torbjorn Lorentzen, a research economist at the Norwegian Institute for Research in Economics and Business Administration believes that EU consumers will be the ultimate losers as a result of the imposition of the MIP and we at Callander McDowell certainly agree. DG Trade have virtually ignored the interests of the consumers at all points of their investigation. Yet, without consumers, the independent Scottish salmon industry would have no reason to exist. After all, why produce salmon if no consumers are prepared to buy the harvested fish.

The final regulation does include two short paragraphs about consumer interest. They relate how they informed various consumer organisations of the opening of the investigation but did not receive any real response. This is not surprising since the Commission have totally ignored the responses of these organisations in previous cases. No doubt, the consumer organisations considered that it would be a total waste of time expressing their views again if they were not going to be given any real consideration. From the outset, DG Trade have expressed a single view on consumer interest and that is that consumers should be prepared to pay a fair price for the salmon they buy. However, DG Trade remain totally indifferent to the fact that the majority of consumers aren't prepared to pay what the Commission considers to be a fair price and therefore have continued to push this regulation through regardless.

DG Trade seem to believe that there is sufficient margin between whole fish ex farm and the finished retail product that the effect of these measures will not be passed onto the consumer. This has not been the case. Retail salmon prices have risen.

There is also one other problem with the concept of a fair price. DG Trade have seemingly used the idea of a fair price based on what happens in industry in general. Cost of manufacture hardly changes except between production areas with differences in wage costs. By comparison, salmon farming is a new agricultural type industry where increasing experience has led to dramatic reductions in the cost of production. (This is why prices have also fallen). The cost of production now will be very different in five years time when this regulation ends. Prices will have fallen but the MIP will remain the same. This means that producers will gain an even greater margin at the expenses of the consumer. This cannot be described as a fair price.

However, one area that DG Trade has not considered at all is the impact that these measures will have on the overall supply of fish to the consumer. It is clear that they have not even taken their own policies into any sort of consideration.

The DG Trade website reports on sectoral issues including fisheries. They state that "The EU is increasingly dependent on imports of fish and fishery products to meet its needs. In 2003, the EU15 imported nearly €13 billion worth of fish and fishery products with exports amounting to almost €2.5 billion. 50% of imports came from 10 countries with Norway accounting for the largest share (15%). The most significant imported products in value terms were fish fillets (€2.5 billion) crustaceans (€2.4 billion) and prepared/preserved fish (€1.6 billion). The main export items were frozen and fresh fish (€870 and €300 million respectively). Japan was the most important export market with a value of €300 million.

40% of world fish production is traded but whilst income derived from fish trade can generate significant benefits, such trade can also cause social and environmental problems. Increased foreign demand for fish products can exacerbate pressure to harvest fish in an unsustainable manner or can lead to excessive investment in fishing capacity. This in turn can lead to over-fishing and depletion of the resources on which coastal communities in developing countries depend for their nutrition and livelihood."

DG Trade clearly admit that the European Community is increasingly dependent on imports of fish, especially from Norway. However, DG Trade appear unable to distinguish that farmed salmon are fish just as much as wild caught cod. When buying fish, consumers do not make any such distinction. They are all fish.

Norwegian salmon are extremely important to EU consumers as are Norwegian cod, probably even more so since the supply of farmed salmon at affordable prices increasingly takes the pressure off wild fish stocks, reducing the same possibility of over-fishing and subsequent depletion of fish stocks that DG Trade highlight as damaging to coastal communities in developing countries. The collapse of the Grand Banks fisheries illustrates that this is just as critical for developed countries.

The imposition of the MIP means that the message emanating from DG Trade is that low cost affordable farmed fish are not something that the Commission should encourage. After-all, the blinkered interests of 15 or so Scottish farmers is clearly of much more importance than those of  all EU consumers and the health of wild catch fisheries!

Wild about salmon: Phillippe Barbe of Direct Ocean has told IntraFish that high farmed salmon prices and continued media scrutiny has forced buyers to turn to bargain basement chum and pink salmon for reprocessing and high-end coho and sockeye for smoking. However, this is not a recent development but more importantly it is a development which has had immense bearing on the dumping case.

The market for salmon is no different to that of many other food items. The majority of consumers are driven by price, however, there is a top end to the market where price is not important. These consumers are driven by issues such as the environment or quality. This is the market targeted for example by organic producers who expect to receive a premium for the fish they produce.

In the past, the Scottish salmon industry has believed that it is they who supply the top end of the market. They have argued that it is Scottish salmon that merits a premium price. As imports of salmon from elsewhere have grown, the distinction between Scottish and imported salmon has diminished along with any premium. This is the sole reason why the EUSPG submitted their dumping complaint to Brussels. Instead, the top end of the market has opted to buy only farmed salmon from organic sources. Top end consumers have also been persuaded that wild pacific salmon meets their requirements and as a result, more and more supermarkets have been stocking fresh pacific salmon and consumption is growing rapidly.

Imported pacific salmon is therefore extremely significant to the dumping case because it has displaced Scottish farmed salmon from the top end sector. Instead, most Scottish salmon is now sold alongside imported Norwegian and Chilean salmon as being just salmon. Wild pacific salmon is now considered to be the premium salmon and this is reflected in it's price. The price of wild pacific salmon in most supermarkets is shown below alongside the price of equivalent farmed salmon.

Booths

Fish counter

Farmed Scottish £9.50/kg

Wild Pacific £23.80/kg

Marks & Spencers

Prepacked

Farmed Scottish £16.18/kg

Wild Pacific £22.60/kg

Morrisons

Fish counter

Farmed Scottish £6.49/kg

Wild Pacific £14.99/kg

Sainsburys

Fish counter

Farmed Scottish £9.99/kg

Wild Pacific £16.99/k

Prepack

Farmed £6.29

Wild Pacific £16.62/kg

Tesco

Fish Counter

Farmed £6.27/kg

Wild Pacific £11.99/kg

Prepack

Farmed £6.48/kg

Wild Pacific £12.71/kg

Waitrose

Farmed Scottish £11.29/kg

Wild Pacific £16.99/kg

It is important to point out that wild pacific salmon has not just started to appear in supermarkets as a result of this latest dumping case. Wild Pacific salmon has been present in the retail market for some time as our regular market survey confirms. We, at Callander McDowell point this out because it is worth quoting from the European Commission's latest regulation. This states:

'It is important to recall that there is no distinction between farmed salmon and wild salmon in the import statistics. However, it has been found that the taste of wild salmon is significantly different from that of farmed salmon. More importantly, the investigation showed that contrary to farmed salmon, wild salmon is practically not offered in the market for sale as fresh product but is mostly sold in tins and cans. It is clear that these products are not directly competing with each other on the market. This explains why the price of wild salmon is lower compared to farmed salmon and why these products are not interchangeable.'

So much for a verifiable investigation!!

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