reLAKSation 162.
Should I worry about…..is a series of programmes shown on BBC 1 in which reporter Richard Hammond investigates a number of subjects that he believes are of concern to the public. Previous programmes have covered such diverse subjects as whether mobile phones cause cancer; whether sausages have any nutritional value; whether tap water is safe to drink; whether patients are likely to catch infections when they stay in hospitals. This week it was the turn of salmon (Due for broadcast in Scotland on Thursday 28th October at 7pm)
This
programme had the potential to be extremely damaging to the salmon farming
industry, but it turned out to be one of the best pieces of unbiased reporting
about farmed salmon and one which the salmon industry should use to its
advantage.
Mr
Hammond began the programme by looking at some of the headlines in the tabloid
press, which appear to have initiated the various food scare stories including
the one linking salmon with cancer. He posed the specific question whether this
was just a scare story or is there really anything to worry about?
Through
a colleague, he met someone investigating contaminants in foods who explained
what dioxins and PCBs are and why they appear in all our food and not just
salmon. She agreed to carry out a small trial to determine the contaminant level
in some basic foods including minced beef, eggs, milk and salmon. Much to Mr
Hammond’s surprise, since the newspapers had led him to believe that salmon
contained extremely high levels of these contaminants, only milk contained less
PCB and dioxin than salmon. They also discussed the recommendations for salmon
consumption in both the US and Europe and showed visually how much each
recommends. Two packs per year in the US and 40-50 packs in Europe.
Mr
Hammond then tracked down David Carpenter and invited him to Scotland to discuss
his findings as well as inviting him out to see a salmon farm, as Dr Carpenter
had not previously ever visited one. The main point that Dr Carpenter made was
not that his findings were specifically damaging, but rather that the way they
had been reported in the press was. Mr Hammond then tried unsuccessfully to
visit the Daily Mail to discuss how the tabloid press seem to be single-handedly
responsible for creating the food scares. Having failed to speak to the press,
Mr Hammond instead met with a statistician to help him put the risk of eating
salmon into context. He discovered that whilst the British public were happy to
accept a risk of catching cancer from smoking of about 2 or3 to one, many
consumers had believed the newspaper reports despite a risk of catching cancer
from salmon of about 13 million to one.
Mr
Hammond ended the programme by asking the question “Should we worry about
eating salmon?” His unequivocal answer was ‘no’.
Mr
Hammond should be congratulated for producing this programme because he should
have well and truly laid to rest any concern about the danger of eating salmon.
He has done more to allay any consumer concern about salmon than anything the
industry has done. The shame is that the programme has largely gone unreported
and the message has not been more widely circulated.
The Daily Mail, the newspaper that seems to fixate on food scares more than any other remained silent on Friday. However, whether coincidental or not, the supermarket chain Sainsbury’s placed a full page, eye catching, advert for salmon in the paper which builds on Mr Hammond’s message.
The text reads: - There's nothing fishy about our salmon.
Because we take extra care to ensure it’s among the best and healthiest you
can buy. No wonder we’ve just being voted Seafood Supermarket of the Year.
Love salmon, but worried by the recent bad press surrounding farmed fish? Our
view, in line with government advice, is that there are health benefits from
eating oily fish like salmon twice a week. And when you buy your salmon from
Sainsbury’s, you can be sure you’re getting a great catch.
The
Scottish industry has nearly two weeks before the programme is broadcast in
Scotland. This is two weeks to fully prepare to capitalise on the programme’s
message. Hopefully, the industry can see that there is more to be gained from
this programme than by directing all it’s efforts towards the shenanigans in
Brussels.
Price
leads the way: European consumers are becoming more price
conscious according to a recent Mintel survey reported by Intrafish. There is an
apparent move away from the premium priced chains towards those that are price
led, especially in the UK market. However
Mintel do point out that the trend is not totally clear as Tesco, the UK's
leading supermarket chain showed significant growth throughout the year, but
were the only non-value retailer to do so.
All the other strong performers were all price-led retail brands. These
include Germany's Aldi and Lidl, US Walmart, owner of Asda and William Morrison,
owner of Safeway. Mintel were surprised to find that the move to price-led
retailers was also evident on the Continent. Carrefour, the largest European
retailer is suffering from a decline in its home market. The Financial Times
reported that Daniel Bernard, Carrefour's chairman has indicated that they will
be lowering prices and will be sacrificing margins in order to maintain their
price leadership. Carrefour is reported to have already invested €229 m in the
first nine months but have not said how much more they will need to spend. In
the UK, premium retailers like Marks & Spencer’s are also suffering with
further falls in underlying sales in the food division. In the last twelve
weeks, food sales have fallen a further 2.8% with the fall accelerating over the
final two weeks. According to the
FT, analysts suggest that these falls are not a short-term problem.
Mintel believe that
increased borrowing and higher interest rates may be responsible for the trend
towards price-led retailers and to trading down to the value ranges in the
premium stores.
Whatever reason for this
trend, the underlying message is clear, salmon prices will remain under
pressure. At a time when safeguards continue to be under discussion in Brussels,
the EU needs to understand that it is consumer pressure and not over-production
that is keeping prices low. Salmon prices will reflect the lower prices found in
the consumers shopping basket rather than reflecting any increases in production
volumes. It is not Norwegian farmers dumping salmon into Europe that have
brought about a decline in price but this wider consumer trend.
Breakthrough
or breakdown?:
Angus Macmillan, spokesman for the European Salmon Producers Group, told
Intrafish that the dispute over salmon quotas remains deadlocked. He said that
his members want to stabilise the market so supply and demand is in phase,
whilst Norwegian and other producers want total free access without any regard
to prices or stability.
It
is not surprising that the dispute is unresolved since this desire for stability
is simply unrealistic. Macmillan and his colleagues have not yet shown how
supply can be linked to demand because the salmon industry has no clear idea as
to what the demand for salmon really is. When this idea was first proposed back
in the early nineties, Scottish production stood at about 30,000 tonnes. Today,
it is over five times the volume showing that demand has consistently increased
as production has grown. This growth in demand has come at a price, which is
that salmon prices have fallen as production expanded. Any attempt to stabilise
the market will not force prices up, especially as the EU has left the door open
to imports from outside Europe.
Mr
Macmillan spoke to the press after Marine Harvest issued a profit warning on
Tuesday, which he believes simply confirms the extent of low prices being paid
to salmon producers. However, it is only necessary to look at the price graph on
Intrafish to see that prices have remained within a relatively consistent band
for quite some time. Companies like Marine Harvest have experienced
profitability at this price level and others continue to do so. Repeated
warnings of large scale bankruptcies have so far failed to materialise.
We,
at Callander McDowell have argued many times that the real problem is neither
over-production nor dumping, but a lack of market development. Salmon farmers
remain firmly fixated on production-led strategies instead of those which are
more market-led. For many years, we have been a lone voice on this subject but
this now appears to be changing.
Speaking
at the recent Deep Blue conference, Howard Johnson said that ‘they always do
the same mistake’. According to seafoodintelligence.com, he said that
‘aquaculture producers continue to focus on production and forget that they
need to be a market-led industry’.
The
reality is that it is not just the small to medium farming companies that need
to take this view into consideration, but also the largest of international
players. Size does not matter and just because Marine Harvest may be facing
difficulties ahead does not mean that they are immune from the need to adopt a
more market-led approach. We have already shown that the retail sector is
increasingly under pressure. Prices will not strengthen, even with production
management. Consumers want low priced salmon and if Mr Macmillan and his
colleagues cannot give it them, consumers will be just as happy with any other
salmon or other low cost meal choices.