reLAKSation 135.

Easter treats: Geir Synnevag of Hjaltland Seafarms in Shetland told IntraFish that there has been a 10 -15% rise in salmon prices over the last couple of weeks. Prices in Glasgow are around £2.15 to £2.20/kg for the most popular sizes. Prices have traditionally risen towards the Easter peak. The IntraFish price guide shows that salmon prices have risen to over NOK25/kg although this is well short of the NOK 30 forecasted earlier this year by various commentators. Whilst higher prices are clearly welcomed by the salmon industry, they are not so attractive to consumers. Fortunately, the main UK supermarkets have decided to give their customers a treat for the Easter holidays. Prices in British supermarkets for fresh, chilled and smoked salmon, together with their usual price, are as follows : 

Asda

Fish counter

Whole fish  - £2.99/kg down from £4.38/kg

Prepacked

Whole salmon - £4.38/kg down from £5.04/kg

Coop

Prepacked

Youngs salmon fillets 390g pack -£3.49 50% extra free

Smoked salmon

Smoked salmon 200g pack - £2.99 down from £5.99

Marks & Spencer

Prepacked

2 salmon fillets 265g pack - £3.19 down from £3.99

4 salmon fillets 530g pack - £5.59 down from £6.99

Smoked salmon

Smoked salmon 100g pack - £2.49 down from £2.99

Smoked salmon 200g pack - £3.99 down from £4.99

Smoked salmon 500g pack - £6.49 down from £7.99

Orkney smoked salmon 100g pack - £3.49 down from £3.99

Orkney smoked salmon 200g pack - £5.49 down from £6.49

Morrisons

Fish counter

Whole salmon - £2.99/kg down from £3.99/kg

Salmon fillets - £5.05/kg down from £6.05/kg

Salmon steaks - £3.89kg down from £4.89/kg

Safeway

Fish counter

Salmon fillet - £6.97/kg down from £5.97/kg

Prepacks

Youngs salmon fillets 460g pack - £3.24 down from £6.49

Smoked salmon

Smoked salmon 400g pack - £5.99 down from £10.99

The Best smoked salmon 150g pack - £3.49 down from £5.49

Sainsburys

Fish counter

Whole fish - £5.29/kg down from £7.99/kg

Prepacked

Whole fish - £4.99/kg down from £6.99/kg

Salmon side - £9.99/kg down from £11.99/kg

Salmon fillet  380g pack - £5.99. Buy one get one free.

Smoked salmon

Smoked salmon  400g pack - £6.99 down from £9.99

Isle of Skye smoked salmon 200g pack - £5.29 down from £6.29

Isle of Skye smoked salmon  400g pack - £7.99 down from £10.99

Somerfield

Prepacked

Whole salmon  - £4.99 down from £5.99

Salmon fillet  260g pack - £1.99 down from £3.99

Smoked salmon

Smoked salmon 200g pack plus 200g free - £4.99

Tesco

Fish counter

Whole fish - £3.29/kg down from £6.59/kg

Smoked salmon

Specially selected smoked salmon 400g pack - £5.99 down from £10.99

Waitrose

Fish counter

Whole fish - £5.19/kg down from £6.99/kg

Smoked salmon

Ghillie & Glen smoked salmon 400g pack - £6.99 down from £9.99

Threats ahead:  The current EU investigation into cheap salmon imports has hardly got underway and already the Scottish industry appear to be concerned that the EU will reject their demands for safeguards. IntraFish reported that the newspaper Dagens Naringsliv had taken an in depth look at the current situation for Scottish salmon producers. William Crowe, the leader of the Scottish Salmon Producers Organisation told the newspaper that their dispute with Norway is far from over. If the EU does not implement safeguards as the SSPO demand, then Mr Crowe presumes that Norwegian industry will be threatened with yet another dumping case.

Mr Crowe's comments appear extremely premature.  After all, the EU has clearly had insufficient time to assess whether salmon imports have impacted on the European industry.  Surely, it would be preferable to wait until the EU report rather then prejudge any decision and certainly before threatening any additional action.  The problem is that this small section of the Scottish industry will only consider one solution to their ongoing dilemma and that is that imports of Norwegian and other salmon into Europe should be drastically curtailed. This is so they don't have to compete for market share against imported salmon, irrespective of whether the competition is fair or not and more importantly, whether there is a distinct market demand for this salmon.

In Europe there is a market for both high quality Scottish salmon and lower cost imported fish.  The market size of the former is relatively small; that of the latter is much larger. However, if the supply of fish to this larger value for money market is curtailed, it does not necessarily follow that consumers will be willing to buy more expensive higher quality Scottish salmon instead. Sadly, the SSPO is unwilling to discuss this possibility. Equally, they appear just as unwilling to discuss any alternative strategy either. This seems to be a case of all or nothing.

This stance, adopted by the SSPO, must be extremely worrying to the Norwegian industry, not only because it might lead to further charges of dumping, but also because FHL aquaculture recently held a unanimous vote to adopt the idea of Producer Organisations.  This is a way of regulating the production of salmon in line with consumer demand.   FHL aquaculture was encouraged to adopt this strategy because it might endear the Norwegian industry to the European Commission through their willingness to adapt to European regulations. Yet, it seems that the Scottish industry through their existing PO appear intent on only one form of regulation - total exclusion of Norwegian salmon from the European market. The Norwegian industry should be clear that the proposal to establish PO's was intended to only regulate Norwegian production, not that in Scotland.

The threat of further dumping action however, may be an empty one. The EC's trade department is already engaged in an investigation of cheaper imports into the European market. If they should find no evidence that these imports are adversely affecting the Scottish industry, they are unlikely to be persuaded to initiate a further investigation over allegations of dumping. We, at Callander McDowell certainly hope that this investigation will draw a line under these continuing allegations.

Nailing the lies:  In reLAKSation no 130, we at Callander McDowell, suggested that MEP’s, such as Struan Stevenson, chairman of the EU Parliamentary fisheries committee, who had criticised the Commission for postponing their decision to implement safeguards, should instead use the opportunity provided by the investigation to seek alternative ways of helping the salmon industry. Well, it seems that Mr Stevenson has taken our advice. He recently organised a seminar in Strasbourg to discuss the current crisis. He invited speakers from Scotland, Ireland, Norway and the Faroes to a seminar; Farmed salmon – Fact & fiction. A spokeswoman for Mr Stevenson told IntraFish that the main objective was to nail the lies and myths surrounding the Scottish salmon sector and to open dialogue with our main competitors to find a way forward that does not lead to a collapse of the industry

After the meeting, Mr Stevenson told Shetland-news that whilst safeguards would be essential if it were proved beyond doubt that imported salmon had disrupted the markets, he would much prefer not to have such political interference in the marketplace. This is something of a change for Mr Stevenson as he had previously expressed his disappointment that safeguards had not been implemented immediately. However, he did say that the avoidance of a salmon war and the creation of a new era of cooperation leading to rising prices would be a significant outcome of this meeting. We believe that he is being a bit too optimistic as this vision is unlikely to happen.

Firstly, as we have already discussed, some sections of the industry appear intent on a salmon war with Norway and other producers. They have their vision of how they want their industry to be and this vision does not include sharing the marketplace with imported fish. Secondly, Mr Stevenson hopes that there will be co-operation between producing nations against a background of rising prices. Prices may have risen in the run up to Easter, but they are unlikely to continue rising, for no other reason than most consumers are unwilling to pay for higher priced salmon.

The meeting concluded with a proposal that a joint marketing approach was the only way forward. We, at Callander McDowell are not so sure.

This would not be the first time that the ‘European’ industry had invested in a joint marketing venture. One of the terms of the EU salmon agreement was that money should be diverted into a generic marketing programme. Part of this continues on today through the internet. Recipes are dispatched weekly to all consumers who had previously registered through either a Spanish, French or German web site. An English version was added later. Despite a huge investment from a tax on Norwegian imports, this joint marketing venture made little impact on the marketplace. Estimates later suggested that the marketing programme had increased the market by between 1 –2%. However, a better guide to its success is that fact that market continued to experience disruption as soon as the Salmon Agreement was terminated. This means that as a result of the marketing venture, consumer demand was hardly stimulated at all. It is unlikely that a further attempt at this form of joint programme will have any better success unless the available budget can be increased significantly to that comparable of more well known brands.

We will watch with interest as to how Mr Stevenson progresses this proposal but we wonder whether there might be even more that he could do. Mr Stevenson’s meeting was by invitation only and took place in Strasbourg, not the usual salmon farming venue. We would like to see Mr Stevenson organise further meetings to consider and discuss all options, not just those in line with Mr Stevenson’s views. With a major exhibition coming up in Glasgow, perhaps this would present a better opportunity to discuss the all the options available to the Scottish industry. It could be some months before the EU report on their investigations, which gives Mr Stevenson plenty of time to look for the non-political solution he so wants.     

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