reLAKSation 119.

Up in smoke!: IntraFish have posed the question as to whether UK shoppers were waiting until the last moment before buying their smoked salmon for Christmas? They reported that Scottish salmon producers faced a nail biting wait to see if sales of smoked salmon picked up before Christmas. Presumably, the implication is that sales of smoked salmon don’t take off until the week before Christmas, when consumers start to buy in their smoked salmon for serving on Christmas Day. However, we at Callander McDowell are not convinced that the market is so simple. Clearly, there is a market for party food such as smoked salmon during the whole run up to Christmas. There is a whole party season during December, which increases the demand for smoked salmon etc. However, the market for smoked salmon extends beyond Christmas. Smoked salmon is now a ubiquitous staple of the supermarket shelves and available all year round. The fact that it is available as such does confirm that smoked salmon is now part of a regular purchase.

Yet, there is no doubt that demand is expected to rise at Christmas time. One farmer bemoaned to IntraFish that at a time when demand for smoked salmon is high, the supermarkets have been running special price promotions in the run up to Christmas. The unnamed farmer said that it seems completely suicidal to offer special price promotions when it is clear that there is a demand for smoked salmon. He said that the rationale the supermarkets seem to follow is that if they do not remain competitive, they will lose their customers to their competitors. We, at Callander McDowell, think that this is not actually the case and that there is a totally different rationale for discounting smoked salmon.

IntraFish suggest that many of the price promotions take the form of two for the price of one of ‘Buy one get one free’, but this is not what happened, out there in the retail sector. We have listed all the smoked salmon promotions offered by the main UK supermarkets this year as well as the full range for comparison. The first price is the standard price, the second is the promotion. Products in parentheses are usually available but were not present in the run up to Christmas. These are mainly smaller sized packs.

                                 Standard price               Promotion 

Asda

Traditional

100g                          £1.48

(200g                        £2.91)             

400g                          £4.47                        Last year priced at £5.99

Premium

100g                          £2.33

 

Budgens

Traditional

50g                            £1.79

100g                          £2.95

(200g                        £4.99)             

400g                  £9.49                        £5.99

 

Coop

Traditional

(100g                      £2.99)             

200g                 £5.99                        £2.99

Marks & Spencer

Traditional

100g                        £2.99

200g                 £4.99                        £4.49

300g                 £8.99                        £6.99

Orkney

100g                        £3.99

200g                 £6.49                        £5.99

300g               £10.99                        £8.99

Organic

200g                £6.49                        £5.99

 

Morrisons

Traditional

100g                        £1.25

200g                 £2.35                        2 for £3.99

600g                        £5.89

Long strip

50g                         £1.19

100g                       £2.29

200g                       £3.65

Premium

150g                        £3.65

 

Safeway

Traditional

(100g                      £2.99)

200g                £4.99                         2 for £8.00

400g               £10.99                        £5.99

Spey Valley

150g                        £5.49

400g                £11.99                        £8.99

Organic

150g                 £4.99                        2 for £5.00

Sainsburys 

Traditional

125g                        £3.69

230g                 £5.99                        £4.99

400g                 £9.99                        £6.99

Isle of Skye

125g                        £3.99

200g                 £6.29                        £5.29

400g               £10.99                        £7.99

John West

200g                £4.99                        2 for £6.99

 

Somerfield

Traditional

(100g                      £2.99)

200g                £4.99                        400g – 100% extra free

So Good Hebridean

200g                £5.99                        £4.79

 

Tesco

Traditional

100g                        £1.98

200g                        £3.88

Specially Selected

200g                 £4.95                        £3.65

400g               £11.99                        £5.99

Finest

150g                        £4.79

500g                      £10.00

Organic

100g                        £3.25

 

Waitrose

Traditional

70g                        £2.29

140g                      £3.99

210g              £5.79                        £4.79

400g              £9.99                        £6.99

Speyside

70g                        £3.29

140g                      £4.99

Ghillie & Glen

200g                      £5.89

400g                £9.99                        £6.99

Organic

140g                      £4.99

 

The clear trend is that it is the larger sized packs, which have been put on promotion. These are not usually available during the rest of the year and are brought in especially for the Christmas market. Most of the promotions are in the form of a discount of a couple of pounds, rather than two for the price of one. In fact, only two of the smaller supermarkets have offered a deal of this type. This reflects exactly what has happened in previous years with similar levels of promotion. We, at Callander McDowell, believe that the discounting is not really designed to attract customers away from competitive supermarkets but rather as a loss leader to push customers to the much more expensive smoked salmon products, which fill the shelves at Christmas time. There are a whole host of salmon terrines, mousses and stuffed parcels made from smoked salmon, which are stocked at Christmas and clearly offer the supermarkets the potential to increase their margins over plain smoked salmon. Customers attracted towards cheaper smoked salmon are more likely to pick up the added value smoked salmon products as well, especially as they are eye-catching when served to the table.

In addition, the reality now is that as salmon has become cheaper and more widely available, so has smoked salmon. It is no longer the expensive luxury it one was. The market has evolved and the luxurious smoked salmon products take many different forms. This is also a mirror of what is happening to the wider fresh salmon market.

Finally, it is worth pointing out that it is not just British supermarkets, which are discounting smoked salmon at this time of year. The French chain Auchan are offering the following deals:

4 slices Norwegian salmon (160g) plus 1 slice free (40g)      Euro 4.95

6 slices Norwegian salmon (240g) plus 2 slices free (80g)     Euro 7.50  

More details of the French market can be obtained from the Callander McDowell French retail survey. E-mail us for further information.

Driving seat or back seat?: In reLAKSation no 111, we, at Callander McDowell, discussed comments made by eminent Scottish writer Magnus Linklater, who bemoaned that Scotland had lost control of salmon farming. IntraFish have discussed this subject again because several industry insiders have suggested that Scotland risks becoming a ‘branch economy’ in salmon farming with the ultimate decisions being taken in head offices, which are not in Scotland. Intrafish state that many in the industry have come to the conclusion that the UK and Scottish governments have not been sufficiently supportive of the domestic industry in recent years and this is why 85% of the industry is now owned abroad.

One industry source told IntraFish that the high price of foreign ownership is due to the too rapid expansion of the industry fuelled by inward investment. He suggests that the quality of management might have left a lot to be desired, with a lack of the visionary thinking then needed to take the industry forward. We, at Callander McDowell, certainly think that this may be partly true.

However, we feel that the real reason that Scotland has lost its driving seat in relation to salmon farming is due to a lack of focus on the market. Sadly, this continues today as can be seen by the latest Strategic Framework for aquaculture in Scotland.

The Scottish industry has continually focussed on the production of high quality salmon, for which consumers are expected to pay a premium price. Unfortunately, it has become increasingly clear that this is not what many consumers actually want. The Scottish industry has therefore been headed in one direction, whilst other producers have headed off in a different one. The result of this is that the Scottish industry has lost out. They have headed down a blind alley and whilst they became more and more blinkered to what was happening in the market place, they were both overtaken and taken out.

This can be best illustrated by the example of one single product; Spey Valley smoked salmon, Safeway’s premium smoked salmon range. The packaging for this product is shown below. 

Whilst the front of the pack is a standard piece of smoked salmon packaging, it is the reverse, which demonstrates the decline of the Scottish vision. A year ago, the reverse of the Spey Valley packaging incorporated the Tartan Quality Mark to show that the salmon was of premium quality. Interestingly, the fact that the TQM then appeared on the reverse of the packaging showed that it had already been deemed to be of lesser importance to consumers since it was concealed from customers' view when displayed on the shelf. It could therefore not be used to persuade consumers that this smoked salmon product was of superior quality. Instead, consumers were left to contrast the Spey Valley salmon with Safeway’s traditional smoked salmon.

This year, the same Spey Valley smoked salmon packs appeared on Safeway’s shelves as they did in 2002, but this year, the Tartan Quality Mark had been overlaid with a grey coloured square so that it merged in with the general background colour. 

This year, Spey Valley smoked salmon is clearly not produced from Tartan Quality Mark salmon and it is being bought up in much the same way as it was last year. Consumers appear unconcerned whether the Tartan Quality Mark is present or not. This is because they are more concerned about whether the smoked salmon looks right and more importantly tastes right. Consumers are also concerned that they are not paying over the odds for the right product to meet their requirements. The reality is that it is unlikely that consumers would be too concerned if Safeway’s premium range were produced from Norwegian salmon as long as it meets their requirements. Certainly, consumers are equally happy to buy prepacked salmon fillets from Safeway irrespective of whether the salmon is Norwegian or Scottish or whether the Scottish salmon is of Tartan Quality Mark quality or not. This is because Safeway offer their customers all three choices and customers appear willing to select any of the three options, especially as the price is the same for all three.

The Scottish industry has continually focussed on origin and quality, yet Safeway customers demonstrate that both issues are of little concern to them. Meanwhile, other producers have looked at what the consumers actually want and have adapted their production accordingly. Scottish producers are simply missing out. They have opted out of the driving seat, preferring to sit in the back.    

Deboned !: IntraFish recently posed the question whether there is still scope to reduce the cost of production in Scotland? The answer elicited was ‘Decidedly not’. According to one farmer, the universal view in Scotland, is that costs have already been pared to the bone.

Whilst we at Callander McDowell are not salmon farmers ourselves and therefore will be adjudged to be unqualified to express any view as to whether costs are the lowest possible, we do believe that it is the limitations of the Scottish strategy, which is the major constraint. We would argue that the costs of producing higher quality fish can only be justified if they generate sufficient premium to offset the higher costs involved. If the higher quality fish do not generate any extra premium, then the extra cost of production is wasted.

We would accept that there is a niche market for premium salmon and certainly there are one or two companies who have aimed to exploit this market. Unfortunately, the market is far too small for all Scottish salmon production and thus, much of the extra production must compete in the wider commodity market. If it is to do this, then companies must adopt a different production strategy and especially one, which is better suited to taking advantage of the economies of scale. This requires much further vision than currently employed, but we at Callander McDowell certainly believe that there is still plenty of scope to adapt to the current salmon farming climate. This may not be to the industry’s liking, but the reality is that there may not be much option. It is a matter of evolving with the rest of the industry or else risking all.

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