reLAKSation 1.
Prices: In recent months, there has been a great deal of speculation about the price of salmon. Such conjecture has been heightened due to the unusually high price levels experienced earlier this year, which may be attributed to the continuous market hype associated with the listings on the stock exchange. This led to predictions suggesting that not only would prices remain high, but that they would continue to rise.
Unfortunately, the market hype was insufficient to protect the high prices from the realities of the market place and by autumn, prices began an inevitable downward slide. However as Christmas approached, there was some optimism that prices would recover even though prices have always weakened as the end of the year approached. Despite the high price levels of the spring and summer, the price of salmon ended up lower by the end of 2000 than that in December 1999. Now, the expectation is that prices will start to rise again in the months leading up to the Easter holiday. This is not really unexpected, since similar price movements have been apparent almost every year previously.
Every year the industry is subjected to such speculation and every year, prices move up and down, influenced by a whole variety of different determining factors. These can happen together or apart, in combination or in sequence, sometimes rarely or sometimes all too frequently. The result is that it is almost impossible to predict how prices will react, especially in the short to medium term. For many farmers, after months of growing fish at sea, the harvest can be something of a gamble.
Whilst speculation continues as to what will happen to salmon prices in the short term, observers, especially those monitoring the performance of companies listed on the stock exchange, may learn more by examining the underlying trend. What is extremely clear is that as production volume has increased, the price of salmon has fallen. There is absolutely no reason to expect this relationship to change and the industry can therefore expect to experience continued pressure on prices for the forseeable future.
There has been a suggestion that the decline in marine wild fish stocks and the accompanying rise in the price of these species will help force the price of salmon upwards. However, it is clear that the reverse is true. Rising prices of cod, haddock and plaice has encouraged consumers to turn to salmon as a "value for money" replacement. Increased demand for salmon will encourage the continued expansion of salmon farming and thus lasting pressure on prices.
Christmas offers: Although evidence suggests that the price of salmon has a tendency to fall in the period running up to Christmas, there appears to be a belief that it is a good time to sell as demand is strong.
The reality is that some of the major UK supermarkets use salmon as a loss leader to attract customers to their stores. Interestingly, whilst salmon prices actually fell below that of the previous year, the supermarkets have not discounted salmon as much as they have previously. Some of the offers for both 2000 and 1999 are listed as follows (please note prices are in £/lb),
Marks & Spencers:
December 2000. Caledonian fillets twin pack £3.99. Buy 2 packs save £1.00.
December 1999. Multipack - 8 fillets for the price of 6.
Tesco:
December 2000. Fresh whole salmon- fresh fish counter and prepacked - half price £1.47/lb
December 1999. Fresh whole salmon- fresh fish counter and prepacked - half price £1.47/lb
Morrisons:
December 2000. Fresh whole salmon - fresh fish counter and prepacks - £2.00/lb Steaks - £2.09/lb. Fillets - £2.77/lb.
December 1999. Fresh whole salmon - fresh fish counter and prepacks - £1.79/lb.
Asda.
December 2000. Whole prepacked salmon - £1.88/lb
December 1999. Whole salmon - £1.49/lb.
Safeway:
December 2000. Whole salmon prepack £4.01/lb. Salmon fillets prepacks £5.35/lb Salmon steaks prepacks £4.02/lb (2 pack) £3.91/lb (4pack)
December 1999. Wet fish counter. Whole salmon half price £1.49/lb Whole salmon fillet £4.41/lb prepack Fillets 250g £2.99 500g £5.85. Steaks 283g £2.55. 570g £4.99.
Sainsbury:
December 2000. Whole fish £2.07/lb down from £3.12/lb Side of salmon £3.56/lb down from £5.35/lb Fillets 720g for the price of 480g £5.99/pack. Organic salmon 50p off per pack.
December 1999. Fresh whole salmon - fresh fish counter and prepacks - half price £1.55/lb. Whole salmon fillet £2.97/lb one third off. 4 steaks 700g £3.99. one third off 2 fillets 485g £3.85 one third off.
Smoked Salmon: As last year, most supermarkets offered generic smoked salmon at half price.
UK supermarkets rarely restrict these offers to just Christmas time and regularly discount salmon throughout the year. Rather surprisingly, such discounting occurred repeatedly throughout the period of higher salmon prices, suggesting other market forces were in play.
EU-Norway Salmon Agreement: Comment in the press has suggested that 2001 is going to be dominated by debate and discussion about the future of the EU salmon agreement. Yet, there is no reason why this should be the case. The future of the EU salmon agreement is already clear, it should be now put where it should have been put in the first place; the waste paper bin. The EU salmon agreement is a worthless document, which serves no real purpose other than to disadvantage the European consumer by limiting imports, at a time when fish supplies in general are diminishing rapidly. Farmed salmon offers consumers, both predictable and consistent availability, price and quality, all features lacking in wild caught fish.
Although the waste paper bin is the obvious place for this agreement, its future is bound to be the subject of continued debate, primarily because it is seen as an essential part of the now dead protectionist arsenal. Sadly, the debate will continue.